Exploring the future: 5 disruptions and opportunities for everyone to consider
Thomas Frey CSP
Futurist Keynote Speaker
Julia Sanderson
Writer
Often, while listening to Thomas Frey speak about what the future may hold for us, one gets the sense that perhaps he just might be a time traveler. In many ways, he rather resembles a character from an H. G. Wells story or from an episode of Doctor Who. After all, as the founder and executive director of the Colorado-based Da Vinci Institute, Thomas Frey is a futurist whose non-profit organization consults with and provides services for various local and international organizations and companies. When Thomas joined IBC’s Tea Time on September 9, his presentation sparked some invigorating questions and discussion amongst our members.
While Thomas Frey may not actually have a time machine, he has his finger on the pulse of the new products, projects, and ideas that have the potential to greatly influence our world in the years to come. Because human nature tends to ruminate over the past, people and businesses tend to make decisions based on history, because we already know what has happened. Thomas refers to that tendency as “walking backwards into the future.”
How do people and businesses change that mindset? Thomas wants us to keep this in mind: “The future creates the present.” In other words, what is happening now is creating the future, and our current decisions and actions should reflect that. Thomas’s main goal is to change the way that people and businesses view the future, so that we alter our approach to today’s decisions.
With all that in mind, Thomas shared his thoughts about what he sees as five post-Covid disruptions and opportunities for everyone to consider. First, he touched upon the world’s rapidly fluctuating demographics, namely that, in the coming years, over half of the world’s population will originate in six countries: Nigeria, Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, and Pakistan. Pointing out that these countries do not tend to be foremost in the minds of most, Thomas noted that an important fact about these countries is that most people have access to smartphones. Whilst their current coverages and speed may not be great, that will change very soon, affording businesses new opportunities in those areas of the world.
Another shift in world population is that over 23 nations will lose more than half of their populations by the year 2100. Both demographic shifts will dramatically affect global supply and demand. Business and government leaders will be wise to keep these numbers in mind as they plan.
The second opportunity Thomas mentioned was that of air taxis. While that may have initially evoked images of the Jetsons and their flying cars, he quickly clarified that air taxis meant flying drones. With more than 100 companies, including Boeing and Airbus, competing to develop this technology, this will bring both opportunities and perhaps some headaches. One will be the need for “mini airports” for passengers, of course.
Major cities could also have over 50,000 smaller drones flying overhead daily, using them to do things such as create digital models of their cities for the purpose of creating “search engines for the physical world,” utilizing these models to determine which intersections have the heaviest traffic, the location of a potential stalker, or even which bridges may be in most need of urgent repair, for example. There are countless uses for this technology, though there will inevitably be privacy issues raised for some of them, another factor that will need consideration in planning for upcoming practices and procedures.
The third post-Covid opportunity that Thomas sees is that satellite internet will significantly transform communications throughout the globe, creating the potential for “monopoly-breaking capabilities.” There are around 4 billion potential new users, mostly poor, who could benefit from this technology. Thomas also mentioned that Elon Musk has around 1600 in orbit now, and Musk has said he wants 30,000 of these “lunchbox-sized” satellites orbiting the planet. Several other companies have already sent some into orbit as well, with plans to send many more.
Thomas’s fourth prediction for post-Covid opportunity is that of the rise of artificial intelligence (“AI”) driven education. While this may sound a bit like something straight out of 2001: A Space Odyssey, this fascinating concept places more importance on “accomplished-based education,” rather than just academics. AI-based education could utilize a “coach bot” that would interact with a user to help the user accomplish something “noteworthy,” such as writing a novel or creating a new video game. The “teacher bot” assists the user by asking several questions, in order to attain the goal of a writing a novel or creating a video game. Thomas predicts that AI will be the “next wave of education,” and that it will soon be possible to complete a college degree in a matter of months!
Thomas feels that the role of education is changing, but not in a way that helps predict educational needs for businesses years ahead of time. Our current way of passing on knowledge to new generations is sluggish and inefficient, because colleges and libraries are no longer sufficient for this purpose, and technology still has poor interface with the human mind.
Another approach to education could be issuing alternative credentials for fields such as those of cloud management, cyber security, cryptocurrency and blockchain, and quantum computing, rather than a narrow focus on college and post-graduate degrees. Thomas observed that there are some knowledge and skill sets in life that are either equivalent to that of a college degree or better and that college degrees should not necessarily be the end goal for everyone. He even proposed the idea of issuing people “micro credits” for education, or “gamifying education.” This could be done by simply reading a book, taking a test on it, and earning some micro credits for that. Watching a movie or a training video could yield the same results. By rewriting the rules for achievement and not limiting them to college degrees, education could change enormously.
Thomas’s big prediction here: by 2030, the largest internet company will be education-based, and no one has heard of it yet.
The fifth opportunity in Thomas’s list was that of cryptocurrency. Because cryptocurrency is resilient, it is not going away. That resiliency stems from their being open, borderless, decentralized, politically neutral, and censorship resistant. The way Thomas views cryptocurrency is that governments and businesses have three choices: fight it, either legislatively, legally, or financially; compete with it and win; or embrace it and join the movement. Someone raised the concern about the massive amount of energy cryptocurrency requires to mine, and Thomas responded that the major cryptocurrency companies are working to drastically reduce their energy consumption even now, so one hopes that this will be the trend for them going forward. Cryptocurrency and blockchain will eventually cause conventional currency’s extinction.
In closing, Thomas predicted that humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in all human history. Our risk factors will increase exponentially, as a result of these dramatic, rapid changes. And generations to come are depending upon us to make better decisions now.
If you’d like to learn more about Thomas Frey and the Da Vinci Institute and their work, you may find more information on their website at https://davinciinstitute.com. Thomas’s latest book titled Epiphany Z, is also available as an audiobook, and he can be heard on the weekly Futurati podcast, along with cohost Trent Fowler.