The Heartland of the U.S. at a Crossroads: 10 Burning Questions for 2021 and Beyond

JC Whorton, Consultant, Lecturer, Author of The Flyover Nation: Energy's Role in a Troubled Heartland.

As we begin a new year and a new administration is inaugurated into the White House this week, bringing major changes and shifts in U.S. policy, we should be mindful of the myriad of challenges facing the troubled Heartland region of the U.S. Many of these challenges will not only influence the Heartland itself, but will also impact the entire U.S. in the coming years. Here are some of the obstacles that may very well shape how socioeconomic policy is crafted for this region.

 The following warning signs and burning questions are critical challenges to the Heartland as identified in my book, The Flyover Nation (April 2020). Many of these issues have since been exacerbated by Covid-19 and the contentious and venomous 2020 Election.

 1.  Urban areas make up less than 4% of the land area in the lower 48 contiguous states, but~80% of the population resides there producing ~80% of the total U.S. GDP.

Will a continued Covid-19 outbreak, variations, or other similar pandemic crisis, reverse decades of migration patterns from rural to urban areas and begin to redistribute existing population, voting patterns and GDP inequities?

2.  Rural counties cover 97 percent of the U.S. land area, but are home to just 14 percent of the country's college campuses,with more than 21 million adults living in rural counties not having college degrees.

Will continued Covid-19 repercussions, such as declining enrollment, increased on-line classes and serious public funding deficiencies severely impair colleges and further limit college degree attainment in rural areas?

3.  According to the Federal Communications Commission, 1/4 of rural citizens lack access to high-speed reliable and affordable broadband internet service, severely limiting or eliminating the ability to attend class or work online. 

How quickly will high-speed broadband and 5G cellular networks replace, or augment,existing infrastructure to resolve and facilitate on-line classes for rural students, economic development and work from home (WFH) demands?

4.  There are 573 federally recognized Native American Tribes in the U.S., as well as a number of non-recognized tribes. The collective geographical area of tribal lands is 56,200,000 acres, 87,800 square miles, or appx.the size of Idaho. There are 12 Indian reservations that are each larger than the state of Rhode Island. Article Six of the U.S. Constitution holds that treaties “are the supreme law of the land.” From 1778 – 1871, the U.S. government entered into more than 370 treaties with Native American tribes - all of these treaties have been abrogated in some form or broken altogether, yet almost no treaties were broken by Native American tribes first. McGirt v. Oklahoma was a U.S. Supreme Court (July 2020) landmark case which ruled that, as pertaining to the Major Crimes Act, much of the eastern portion of the state of Oklahoma remains as Native American lands of the prior Indian Reservations of the Five Civilized Tribes and never disestablished by Congress aspart of the Oklahoma Enabling Act of 1906.

Will the McGirt v. Oklahoma decision create new legal incentives or precedent for other Native American tribes to challenge previously abrogated treaty rights across the nation even though decades and centuries have elapsed?

 5.  The Heartland is inextricably tied to natural resource development, and the U.S. is the only country with private ownership of sub-surface mineral rights.  With over 12,000,000 mineral owners in the U.S., oil and natural gas have been, and will continue to be, a key factor in rural prosperity.  Consequently, the economic future of the Heartland is heavily dependent upon the continued future of domestic energy development and favorable oil and gas public policy.

In considering the economic importance of oil and natural gas revenue to the Heartland, U.S. energy independence and its geopolitical security implications, how quickly will the advent of “Peak Oil Demand” and the transition to green energy erode these key economic and diplomatic advantages?

 6.  The Fourth Industrial Revolution will be a significant game changer for the Heartland.The Fourth Industrial Revolution will likely contribute to the widening of income and social inequality, with highly skilled and trained workers realizing advantage from the technological progress, while less qualified workers will suffer a greater reduction of job opportunity and income.

Will the accelerated evolution of automation and artificial intelligence contribute greatly to lost opportunity and worsen rural/urban economic parity by driving more rural workers to unemployment and poverty?

 7.  The Heartland is a complex patchwork of ownership and uses, which is quietly and quickly changing. The 100 largest private landowners now own more than 42 million acres across the U.S., an area larger than Florida. Urban growth devours about a million acres a year, and 75% of America’s farm land is controlled by 12% of the farms.

Will land use and ownership become even more contentious with the passing of each year?

 8.  Water and energy are interdependent in that each requires the other (energy production requires water and water delivery requires energy) and both are necessary for life and economic growth.

Will there be enough water to sustain the lifestyles desired while providing for the necessities and economic growth required?

 9.  Currently, rural infrastructure, as well as economic and lifestyle demands,do not support widespread rural EV (Electric Vehicle) purchases and use.

At what economic strike point and time horizon will costs, battery life and power infrastructure support a rural transition to EV from ICE (internal combustible engine)modes of transportation?

 10.  The 2020 election clearly evidenced the further widening rural-urban divide. The Heartland has been hit hard economically by declining populations, shrinking communities, decaying social services, trade wars, low commodity prices, droughts and overall, stunning losses of economic opportunities and jobs. Rural resentment is boiling over, with the general consensus that Washington continuously ignores rural America in favor of the more populated, prosperous and progressive vote-concentrated urban areas.

Will the Heartland’s socioeconomic and political stature ascend to some degree of parity with densely populated urban areas to allow both sides to find common ground with centrist positions, or retrench with further shifts to uncompromising far-right populism?

America has always been a pioneering society, and now we find ourselves at a new socioeconomic and political crossroads. We must use that pioneering and innovative spirit to address and overcome these challenges in a unified and bi-partisan manner.